Last week the NFL released the schedule for the 2023 season, and for the first time since the height of the Rex Ryan regime, excitement fell upon New York Jets fans. With the hype building as a result of the Aaron Rodgers trade, the Jets have become the darling of the betting world. Once a laughing stock, are now a Jets team that fans, and even Vegas, has fallen in love with. With that, we now have our first look at New York Jets game lines, point totals, and season props.
New York Jets Team Betting Preview
Coming in to the 2022 season, many Jets players and personnel were on the hot seat. General Manager Joe Douglas had followed a sound process since his hiring in 2019, but results were not quite there. Add in a very disappointing four-win season for rookie head coach Robert Saleh in 2021, and both them found themselves under intense media scrutiny heading into 2022. However, a strong offseason that saw the Jets draft both the 2022 AP Offensive and Defensive Rookie’s of the Year in WR Garrett Wilson and CB Sauce Gardner propelled them to a respectable 7-10 record; a game and a half above their betting win total of 5.5 games.
Heading into the offseason the Jets had one main question that needed answering: who’s playing quarterback? Former 2nd overall pick Zach Wilson has had very small glimpses of being competent, but the wheels totally fell off this season. With a pivotal 2023 season coming up it would have been very difficult to go into the season with Wilson under center.
Weeks leading up to free agency many names had been tossed around in the rumor mill; mainly Derek Carr, Jimmy Garoppolo, and Ryan Tannehill. That’s until one man emerged. Enter Aaron Rodgers. The former Super Bowl winner and four-time league MVP was traded from the Green Bay Packers in a deal that involved first round picks and pick swaps. An organization that was mockingly a barren wasteland of quarterback talent since Joe Namath, suddenly acquired the most talented quarterback to ever step foot in the “Big Apple”.
New York Jets Schedule Overview
Heading into the 2022 season the Jets had the sixth easiest strength of schedule based off of Vegas win totals. This season is very similar, boasting the eighth easiest strength of schedule based off of win totals. The biggest differentiator between 2022 and 2023 is primetime. Last season the Jets had a singular primetime game. A week 16 matchup on Thursday night against the Jacksonville Jaguars. This season the Jets will play in five primetime games. Two Sunday nights, two Monday nights, and a Thursday night. Call that the Aaron Rodgers affect.
The schedule makers heavily favored the Jets this year by only having two sets of back-to-back road games, a trio of home games from weeks 12-14, and a team friendly week 7 bye-week that’s sandwiched between a home game against the Philadelphia Eagles and an “away game” against the New York Giants.
Where the Jets season should come down to is division play. They went 2-4 in the division last season, and face two Super Bowl hopefuls in the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins, as well as an improved New England squad. However, the Jets have been thrust into that “hopefuls” category as well. A realistic goal for this team should be splits against Buffalo and Miami, as well as a sweep against New England. Outside of the division they have two very tough games against last years Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday Night, and Super Bowl runners-up, the aforementioned Eagles. The rest of their schedule features fairly easy games against teams like the Atlanta Falcons, Houston Texans, and Washington Commanders.
Fans and Vegas odds have lofty expectations for the Jets this season, setting their win total at 9.5 games, a massive increase over their 5.5 game win total from last year. A massive upgrade to the most important position in sports, coupled with an improved division record should set the Jets up for a nice season.
Win Total: Over 9.5 (-130) Under 9.5 (+110)
Best Bet: Over 9.5
Buy into Rodgers breaking the Jets curse and finally guiding them to a successful season. With four division wins along with wins against Denver Broncos, New York, Las Vegas Raiders, Atlanta, Houston, Washington and Cleveland Browns, that gets them to 11 wins. Add in the potential to steal a game from the Los Angeles Chargers and Dallas Cowboys as well, and they could blow past hat 9.5 win projection.
Week 1 Jets vs Bills Betting Odds
Spread: Jets +1.5 (-110) Bills -1.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Jets (+100) Bills (-120)
Total: Over 47.5 (-110) Under 47.5 (-110)
The Jets split the season series against the Bills last year with Zach Wilson and Mike White under center. That won’t be the case this year. It’s tough to look back at the history between these two teams and call it because of the Jets rapid improvement. The Bills are still one of the premier teams in the league though, and the sports books are still treating them like top dog within the AFC East.
Whether it’s slight disrespect towards the Jets, or continued love for the Bills, this matchup is a perfect week one litmus test as to whether or not they can handle the bright lights.
Best Bets: Jets +1.5 and Jets ML
Home underdogs that’s why. On paper these teams are near equals. I get there’s a bit of “I’ll believe it when I see it” when it comes to the Jets, but the season series was split last year and that was when the Jets started two backup-level QB’s. The Bills are still the Bills which is why it should be a close game. Monday night. Primetime. New York. Aaron Rodgers. A week one win and cover is the early prediction.
Throwing a couple of futures in the betslip is never a bad thing, and can make a rollercoaster of an NFL season fun. Here are my two for the Jets:
Future One: Aaron Rodgers to win MVP (+1400)
These odds are way too good to take for a four-time MVP. Even at 39 years old Rodgers is still slinging it, and should feel rejuvenated and like he has something to prove. The Jets offensive line is a question, but with a bevy of receiving weapons in Garrett Wilson, Allen Lazard, Mecole Hardman, Corey Davis, Ty Conklin, and C.J. Uzomah to go along with a high end RB in Breece Hall, a 4,000+ passing yard season should not suprise anyone. This is the best set of weapons he has had in a long time. That’s not to mention he will be reunited with offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, whom he won his previous two MVP trophies with.
Future Two: Jets to win AFC East (+225)
Much of the same reasons why it’s highly likely they win over 9.5 games is why the Jets to win the division is a good bet. Their division record should be much improved from last year. The Buffalo games will be tough, there is no denying that. The Miami games may come down to the health of Tua Tagovailoa, which is murky at best. And the Patriots, though improved from last year, are still the clear fourth best team in the division. There’s 11+ win potential with this team, and if you buy into the hype then this should be a no-brainer.