Phillies Betting Recap
In our last Phillies Betting Recap for Wednesday’s series finale in San Francisco, Taijuan Walker looked like he went to Tijuana before he pitched, as he couldn’t get out of the first inning, giving four runs on four hits and two walks. Never out of it, Philly tied it in the fifth. Their bullpen which had been very impressive the last few games finally wilted and gave up three runs in the eighth and Philadelphia dropped their fourth consecutive game and cost us our 2-unit -1.5 unit +135 wager.
Cubs (+105) vs Phillies (-125) O/U 9.0
The Phillies limp into their six-game homestand with a 20-23 record and seven games out of first place. Luckily for them, the Chicago Cubs are in an even worse slump, having lost their last five games and eight out of the last ten. The first pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m.
The Cubs are a statistical anomaly so far this season. They have solid pitching, decent hitting, yet are 5 games under .500 and in third place in their division. Stroman is a perfect example of that, with a losing 2-4 record while posting an impressive 3.24 ERA.
Unfortunately, he’s suffered a bit from the “Jacob deGrom‘s syndrome”, where his teams have scored an absurdly low amount of runs in the games that he starts. In his nine starts this season, Stroman has received 22 totals, an average of 2.4 runs per start. Talk about getting no love from your friends!
The Phillies Ranger Suarez is making only his second start of the season after suffering an injury during the World Baseball Classic held during the spring. He was roughed up a bit in his season debut last week in Colorado, allowing three runs on seven hits and one strikeout in four innings of work. However, it is worth noting that while 60% of the balls that were hit were in the air, none of them left the park, which is fairly impressive.
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I’m focusing on two specific regular wagers and one prop. First, I’m taking the visiting Cubs on the money line. This is a team, and specifically Stroman, that does not deserve their losing record.
Stroman is having a strong season, and with the way the Phillies have been hitting recently, I think that continues tonight. While Citizens Bank is considered a hitters’ ballpark, Stroman has not struggled here at all. In the 117 batters he’s faced, he’s only given up 24 hits, three of which left the park. That’s a .222 batting average when accounting for the eight walks he issued.
Philadelphia is mired in another major slump right now. They’ve only scored 17 runs in their last five games, 3.4 runs per game average. That’s fine if your pitchers are sporting sub-3.0 ERAs, but when they’re north of 4.5, you’re in trouble. The fact that Philadelphia is favored just makes the Cubs that more enticing.
Second, I’m looking at the under. With the aforementioned success that Stroman’s had in Citizens Bank Park and Suarez’s promising return, I think that this could be an old-fashioned pitcher’s duel. What gives me slight trepidation with this is the fact both bullpens have been a bit shaky. If this was 20 years ago, I’d be pounding the under because I could realistically expect both pitchers to make it into the 7th if not longer. Stroman is averaging slightly over five innings per outing. Still, I’ll roll the dice that he pitches six strong and their bullpen can muddle along.
The prop bet I’m focusing in on is Marcus Stroman’s alternate 6 strikeouts at +150. He has 47 strikeouts in 50 innings pitched. The Phillies are averaging 9.1 K/9. I think Marcus goes a strong six innings with eight punchouts.
Bets and Season Record
Pick: Cubs Money Line +105 2 UNITS Pick: UNDER 9 -110 2 UNITS
Pick: Marcus Stroman Alt Strikeouts: 6 or more +150 prop bet 2 units
Run Line: 2-1 (+6 units)
O/U: 4-2 (+4 units)
Money Line: 3-0 (+5 units)
Up 15 units (+$1,500)