The NFC East has been one of the most competitive divisions year after year, as evidenced by the fact that since 2005 there has been a new champion crowned every year. The last time someone went back to back is when the Eagles won the division 4 straight years from 2001-2004. But can these very same Eagles finally break the 18-year streak without a back-to-back division winner? Before we make the case for each team, let’s look at how they’re all priced in the market.
Best Available Division Prices in Market
Philadelphia Eagles +100 (Bet MGM, FanDuel)
Dallas Cowboys +193 (Pinnacle)
New York Giants +800 (DraftKings)
Washington Commanders +1300 (Caesars)
The Bull Case – The Dallas Cowboys are a well balanced team, that has a very good Quarterback and plays good defense, two good recipes for success. They’ve brought in Wide Receiver Brandin Cooks which should add a new wrinkle to their offense, and Corner Back Stephon Gilmore should give them stability in the secondary. They also have moved away from Ezekiel Elliott who quite frankly was a negative everytime he touched the ball. Perhaps the most exciting thing is the idea of them turning Micah Parsons into a full time Edge Rusher.
The Bear Case – Firing Offensive Coordinator Kellen Moore and replacing him with Brian Schottenheimer is a downgrade. If you believe all the quotes coming from Mike McCarthy this off-season about running the ball more, than this offense might just take a step back.
New York Giants
The Bull Case – Brian Daboll has a year under his belt and can continue to grow as a Head Coach. Daniel Jones gets a 2nd year in this system and can build off of a good first year. He’ll also enjoy the new weapons they’ve brought in for him in Tight End Darren Waller, Wide Receiver’s Parris Campbell, Jamison Crowder and rookie Wide Receiver Jalin Hyatt. Linebacker Bobby Okereke gives them a much needed improvement on defense, specifically their run defense which gave up 5.2 yards per carry last year, good for 2nd worst. The growth of their young pass-rushers.
The Bear Case – They’re in a division with two power-houses, the schedule is a lot harder than last year’s cupcake schedule, and I still have gigantic questions about their O-line and Defense.
The Philadelphia Eagles
The Bull Case – The Eagles are a house and it starts with Upper Management. Howie Roseman does a brilliant job of drafting the best players on the board, regardless of if it’s an immediate need. Last year they drafted Defensive Tackle Jordan Davis and Linebacker Nakobe Dean two positions they didn’t need at the time. Turns out it was a great decision because the Eagles lost DT Javon Hargrave and LB’s T.J. Edwards/Kyzir White in the off-season. They also have a forward thinking Head Coach who has embraced analytics and applies it to his in-game decisions. Add in another year of Jalen Hurts development and the Eagles once again look like a house.
The Bear Case – When you’re one of the best teams in football the year before, you get pillaged for your talent. That was the case when they lost both their Offensive and Defensive Coordinators, who went on to become Head Coaches. The Eagles could still be fine, and may have even upgraded at DC with the hiring of Sean Desai. Their Offensive line isn’t as deep as it has been in years prior, due to Andre Dillard and Isaac Seumalo leaving in free agency.
The Bull Case – New Play-caller Eric Bieniemy is one of the more intriguing coaching changes this year. He’ll also love what he has to work with, as Washington has a solid trio of Wide Receivers. The variance that comes with an unknown entity like Quarterback Sam Howell. The markets are pricing Washington as being a team with no chance. I don’t like writing off teams, when we don’t know how good their Quarterback is.
The Bear Case – The variance that comes with an unknown entity like Quarterback Sam Howell. If he’s really bad, this offense could struggle to put up points, and even put their defense in a bad position with turnovers and short fields. The unknown of Eric Bieniemy also plays a role, as we won’t know how much of his success was driven by being with Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes.
Power Ratings and Projected Win Totals
Dallas Cowboys – 11th in my Power Ratings. 9.28 Projected Wins
New York Giants – 21st in my Power Ratings. 7.74 Projected Wins
Philadelphia Eagles – 3rd in my Power Ratings. 11.35 Projected Wins
Washington Commanders – 22nd in my Power Ratings. 7.4 Projected Wins
I have the Eagles as the clear cut best team in the division, but I also think that the Giants and Commanders are a lot closer to each other than the market perceives, and will look to exploit that
Bets I’m Making for NFC East Division
Philadelphia Eagles +100 to win the division – Can be found at BetMGM and FanDuel
Washington Commanders +270 Finish 3rd in division – Can be found at BetMGM
Bets I’m Making for Win Totals
Dallas Cowboys Under 9.5 Wins +142 – Found at Pinnacle. If you don’t have access to Pinnacle you can find +140 at Caesars