In Saturday’s Phillies Betting Preview, I had two 3-unit wagers going: One on the Phillies +110 on the ML, and OVER the nine-run total. “Mad” Max Scherzer wasn’t unhittable, giving up two runs over six solid innings, but the Mets were 3-6 with runners in scoring position and the Phillies were 1-8. Thus, a Mets 4-2 triumph was the result.
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Mets (+150) vs. Phillies (-170) O/U 9.5
The proverbial “rubber match” between these two NL East rivals is set for a 1:35 p.m. start. Besides deciding the series’ winner, Sunday’s game is important because these two foes won’t meet again until the last two weeks of the regular season.
Mets Pitching and Offense
RHP Carlos Carrasco (2-3 6.34) heads to the hill for the Metropolitans. He was clobbered his last time out, surrendering six runs (five earned) on five hits and three walks in only three innings. This will be his 10th start in the 2023 campaign.
His whole season has been a roller coaster. He started by getting shelled twice out the gate, putting together 3 decent outings out of four, but has been horrible in June. The Mets have lost all three games he’s started, his FIP is 8.09, batters’ OPS against him is 1.042. His June BABIP, however, is only .325, which would indicate that this forgetful month hasn’t really been unlucky for him. He’s earned his poor stats. His victory over the Phillies on May 31st was just 3 1/2 weeks ago but feels like 3 years.
New York’s batting has been average, at best, all season. They have one batter with an average of over .300, and catcher Michael Perez only has seven bats with four hits. Their team’s batting average of .240 is below the MLB average of .248. They have 90 home runs, one more than the MLB average, but their team OPS is .716, less than the average .729. One area they excel in is not striking out. They only have 595 whiffs, compared to the average 659 of the MLB.
Phillies Pitching and Offense
Veteran RHP Zack Wheeler (6-4 3.48) will try to win this series for the Fightin’ Phils. Over his last seven starts, Wheeler has been solid, in not spectacular in this day and age. When I was growing up, Wheeler’s 3.14 ERA over his last seven would have been good. Nowadays, it’s almost Cy Young material.
His peripherals have been spot-on as well. His BABIP is exactly the baseline .300, so luck hasn’t been much of a factor at all. Only one game, the shellacking he took in Washington, D.C. did he not go over 100 pitches. One of his patented starts is exactly what this burdened bullpen needs.
Much has been said about the Phillies “Heating up in the Summer”. Yet it hasn’t really been shown in the offense. So far for the month, they have a record of 14-7, fifth in the majors. Yet their power production is nowhere near that ranking. The 23 home runs they hit are only good enough for 18th in the MLB.
Another way to illustrate this point is by looking that the unders for the month of June in Philadelphia games. The O/U of the 21 games in June is 5-13-3. Some of those games that went under had totals of 7.5 (twice) and 8.0 (twice).
The Phillies have been playing good baseball, just not scoring in droves. That lends more legitimacy because consistent pitching is more difficult to produce. So I’m going to take the under 9.5 for five units.
Then I’m placing a small, Same-Game Parley (SGP) on DraftKings of Phillies -170 and an alternate total of 8.5, which pays out +225 for 2 units.
Bets and Season Record
Pick: Mets-Phillies UNDER 9.5 -140 5 UNITS
Pick: SGP Phillies -170 ML & ALT Total 8.5 +225 2 UNITS
Up 25.5 units (+$2550)