Short Series Preview
After a hard fought series win backed by a record-breaking 51 point Game 7 from Jayson Tatum against the Sixers, the Celtics are faced with a familiar foe in the Eastern Conference Finals for the 3rd time in 4 years – The 8-seed Miami Heat.
Propelled off the back of Jimmy Butler‘s extraordinary postseason play, the Heat are hungry, and looking for revenge after last year’s ECF, losing to Boston in 7 on Miami’s home floor. The Celtics should know to not take Miami lightly after their previous playoff bouts. There are three prop bets that I find value in for Game 1 as the series kicks off in Boston on Wednesday night (8:30pm ET, TNT).
Prop Bet 1 – Bam Adebayo under 9.5 Rebounds (-139)
Embed from Getty Images
The double-big lineup of Al Horford and Robert Williams fared well for the Celtics in Games 6 & 7 vs the MVP Joel Embiid and the Sixers, after holding him to 10 boards in Game 6 and 8 in Game 7, after he averaged 9 in Games 2-5 after being out for Game 1. The C’s benefit from this lineup and have proven to give up less on the glass with Williams implemented into the 5 spot. If this lineup is the same for the Celtics in Game 1, I don’t see Adebayo going over 9.5, which he has only gone over this number 4 times in 11 playoff games this season. It should also be noted that the Heat rebound by committee, with Jimmy Butler and Kevin Love averaging 6 boards a piece this postseason. The best site to bet this prop shows:
Caesars at -139
DraftKings at -145
Prop 2 – Derrick White over 1.5 3PT Makes (+135)
With the Celtics mainly running a 7-man rotation for the postseason consisting of 6th Man of the Year Malcolm Brogdon and Derrick White coming off the bench, there has been no shortage of minutes for these two key role players, as White has averaged nearly 30 minutes per game in the Celtics 13 postseason games this year, and even started games before the Celtics experimented with the double-big lineup. In the 2022-2023 season with the Celtics, White has averaged 2.25 3PT makes in 4 matchups with the Heat. I like White to hit atleast 2 threes in Game 1 vs Miami with the added value. The best site to bet this is DraftKings Sportsbook at +135 odds.
Highest 3P% by a player remaining in the playoffs (minimum 1 3PA per game):
53.3 — Rui Hachimura
47.4 — Nikola Jokic
47.1 — Jaylen Brown
43.4 — Malcolm Brogdon
42.9 — Derrick White pic.twitter.com/9xaKKniH9r
— StatMuse (@statmuse) May 16, 2023
Prop 3 – Jaylen Brown over 33.5 PTS+REB+AST (-125)
During the Jayson Tatum show in Game 7 on Sunday afternoon, Jaylen Brown finished with a strong 25 points on 47% from the field in a game that was pretty much over after the 3rd quarter. Not to mention Brown has been tearing up the Heat all season, averaging nearly 30, 4 and 8 on 57% from the field in the 3 games he’s played in vs Miami. After an All-NBA Second Team selection for this season, Brown is hungry for his first NBA Championship along with the other Jay. When Tatum is off, Brown has been there to pick him up throughout these playoffs. I expect him to contribute heavily on the offensive end in Game 1 on Wednesday in front of the Boston faithful. The best place to bet this via https://betstamp.app/games is Caesars and DraftKings Sportsbooks at -125 odds.
Energy is shifting ⚡️
— Jaylen Brown (@FCHWPO) May 15, 2023